Underwhelming Madrid need special touch
Soccer Betting Lines
09/06/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jose Mourinho left Inter Milan this summer for the bright lights of the Bernabeu, he took a calculated risk. After all, Inter had just come off a season where they won both the domestic league and cup along with the most prestigious competition in all of domestic football, the Champions League.
Mourinho could have easily soaked up all the glory of being the only manager to win the Champions League with two different clubs and stay put with a team that should once again be among the elite in world football.
However, that's never been Mourinho's style. The self-professed "Special One" was hungry for a new challenge and the quest to erase the disappointment of a trophy-less season in Madrid last year was just that.
A spending spree in the summer of 2009 brought Real Madrid the likes of Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, but what it didn't bring was success.
Former coach Bernd Schuster was unable to tactically bring the cohesion the club needed and that resulted in humbling defeats throughout the season.
After the departure of Schuster, Mourinho's influence was felt almost immediately at Madrid.
Gone were long-time Madrid veterans Raul and Guti and in came young stalwarts Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira and Angel Di Maria.
Also making his way into the fold was stalwart defender Ricardo Carvalho, who won domestic championships under Mourinho at FC Porto and Chelsea.
While Madrid possess a roster filled with talent and potential, many of the newcomers failed to live up to the lofty expectations.
Karim Benezma found himself a spectator for much of the season after being usurped by Gonzalo Higuain at forward while Kaka never truly found his form, causing transfer rumors to surface about his possible departure.
One of the glaring weaknesses of the club is the lacking of a true instrumental midfielder capable of creating offensive opportunities.
With arch-rivals Barcelona boasting such players as Xavi and Iniesta, they have found success in breaking down even the toughest of defenses.
In acquiring Mesut Ozil from Werder Bremen, Mourinho hopes he's found a player that could bring the club's offensive game together and open up space for the likes of Di Maria and Ronaldo to work their magic on the wings.
A 0-0 draw against Mallorca to open the season was likely not the result Mourinho was hoping for, but it is indicative of where Real Madrid is at the current moment, a work in progress.
Now that Lassana Diarra and Ronaldo are down with injuries for the next few weeks, the new recruits will get the opportunity to prove they are indeed worthy of putting on the famed Madrid shirt.
The task for the "Special One" will be how to turn a star-studded group of individuals into that of a team. That indeed might have been the biggest factor in getting rid of the likes of Raul and Guti, who were seen to have their share of influence in the Madrid locker room.
Rafael Van Der Vaart became Mourinho's latest victim, having been sent packing to Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League on the final day of the summer transfer market.
Madrid is now indeed Mourinho's team. The brash and arrogant manager has never been one for failure and no one should expect any less from him at Madrid, no matter the bumps and bruises early on.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.